Geoeconomic Analyses of Türkiye: An Evaluation from a Geopolitical and Geostrategic Perspective

Abstract

This study provides a strategic analysis of Türkiye’s geoeconomic and geopolitical position within the context of transformations in the international system. In the post-globalization era, economic power instruments have moved to the core of states’ foreign policy toolkits. In contrast, energy, trade, finance, and technology policies have emerged as key determinants of geoeconomic spheres of influence. Edward Luttwak’s conceptualization of “geoeconomics” underscores the role of economic instruments in achieving strategic objectives, whereas Susan Strange’s “structural power” approach demonstrates how the global economy reshapes state behavior.

Within this framework, the study examines Türkiye’s geoeconomic capacity across critical domains, including energy supply security, production and trade corridors, the defense industry, financial vulnerabilities, and technological dependence. It further assesses Türkiye’s pursuit of “strategic autonomy” in the context of the Middle Corridor, the Trans-Caspian route, its ascent in defense technologies, and regional diplomatic initiatives. The findings indicate that Türkiye’s geoeconomic effectiveness is not solely contingent upon resources or geography, but also depends on institutional capacity, financial stability, and the level of technological innovation. In this respect, the study argues that Türkiye’s position in the global system can be strengthened through sustainable geoeconomic strategies and multidimensional policy coordination.

TJGE measures Türkiye’s geoeconomic power across ten sub-indices: Energy, Logistics, Finance, Technology & Innovation, Human Capital, Resources, Geopolitics, Military, Institutional Quality, and Environmental Resilience. For 2024, the TJGE score stands at 56.95, positioning Türkiye at the level of a “regional power.” According to projections for 2030, 2040, and 2050, the TJGE is expected to increase to 65.78, 75.14, and 85.19, respectively. The Energy, Technology, Finance, and Resources sub-indices constitute Türkiye’s core strengths, while Institutional Quality and Environmental Resilience require further improvement.

The analysis tests the reliability of the sub-indices using Cronbach's alpha and ensures methodological robustness through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and sensitivity analysis. This comprehensive approach underpins the projection that Türkiye could become a regional geoeconomic hub with the capacity for global influence, thereby fostering trust in the analysis's credibility.